A quick refresher on my politician:
Senator Jay Rockefeller, the Senior Senator from West Virginia, was elected in 1984 winning a highly contested race against Republican John Raese. He has gone on to win four largely uncontested reelections and will retire from the Senate at the end of his current term having spent 30 years in office.
He has served as the Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee (retiring in January 2009) and is currently the Chairman of the Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. He is known for his open criticism on the War in Iraq and is a primary supporter of nationalized health care legislation.
Last Election:
Rockefeller won reelection in 2008 defeating Republican challenger Jay Wolfe by 27 points even though McCain won the state by 13 points (a 40 point gap). This was not a surprise as Rockefeller also defeated Wolfe in the 2002 Senatorial race and had never won re-election with less than 63% of the vote. However, one can imagine it would be hard for any candidate to win with Rockefeller outspending $2.3 million to $136,000 (almost 17 to 1) in the 2002 race and $6 million to $124,000 (48 to 1) in the 2008 race.
Rockefeller himself has not contributed any funds to his own Senatorial campaigns, but is affiliated with a Democratic PAC known as the Mountaineer PAC and is supported by a number of companies and industries (see below).
Voting in 2012 vs. 2013:
In 2012, Rockefeller backed President Obama despite the President’s unpopularity in West Virginia (he lost to Republican Mitt Romney by nearly 27 percentage points in 2012). However, throughout the reelection process Rockefeller remained a strong supporter of industries such as coal that often came under fire from the administration. With his upcoming retirement that has changed, and Rockefeller has now openly supported the President’s “War on Coal” and other environmental policies (this video is one example).
Outlook for the Senator's Seat in 2014:
With Senator Rockefeller’s retirement, experts predict a likely win for Republicans in 2014. Representative Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) who has served in the US House for the last thirteen years declared her candidacy in November and is favored to win the vacated seat (view her campaign page here).
No Democrats have come forward with intent to run for the Senatorial seat, and, according to Politico Experts, the bench of potential candidates doesn’t appear to be very deep. U.S. Attorney, Booth Goodwin; state House Speaker, Rick Thompson; West Virginia Secretary of State, Natalie Tennant; and Carte Goodwin, who served as interim U.S. Senator after Robert Byrd died in 2010, have been named as possible Democratic contenders.
Although Rockefeller's seat has been under Democratic control since 1958, the predicted Republic upset is largely due to the aversion of President Obama in West Virginia and the popularity of Representative Capito.
Sources:
http://www.newrepublic.com/blog/electionate/110549/democratic-losses-in-coal-country-put-rockefeller-in-danger
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